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September 17, 2014

Today's Commentaries on Economic & Resource News by Ian R. Campbell FCPA FCA FCBV

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Important Highlights from Today's Commentaries

 

Commentaries

Qualification: I have not audited the information in this infographic - A forecast of When We'll Run Out of Each Metal. If the figures are well-based, the time-frames set out in it are interesting to say the least.


In light of the information set out in today’s commentary China – mineral reserves one can only wonder whether this latest China data is included in the infographic numbers.

 

A Forecast of When We’ll Run Out of Each Metal (Visual Capitalist – review time 2 minutes)

China – mineral reserves

If you have not read Massive mineral deposits discovered in China, you might want to read and think about it.


For me, one of the most interesting statements in the article is a claim that the work done in the past three years on geological surveying, ore prospecting and economic resource utilization is equivalent to one-third of all work done prior to 2011.

 

Massive mineral deposits discovered in China (WantChinaTimes – reading time 2 minutes).

European Central Bank interest rate changes

You no doubt know that on September 4 the European Central Bank reduced interest rates by 1/10th of 1% to a new level of 1/20th of 1%. At the same time it announced a form of quasi-quantitative easing that beginning in October will see it begin purchasing asset-backed securities comprised of private sector loans, including mortgages.

 

One can only wonder what the ECB expects to accomplish by these actions. But then, if a pre-cut prevailing interest already is only 15 basis points, what is one to do?C omparatively little has happened in the past two weeks.

 

I suggest you read Mario Draghis feeble attempt to save the Eurozone is bound to fail and think about the views of a Europe based journalist.

 

I, for one, do not expect these recent ECB moves to be very effective in either the near- or long-term.

 

You might also want to read The European Central Bank whips out the big guns. This article posits a more positive view than the one I hold.

 

Note that the negative interest rates discussed in this second article are "deposit rates", not “interest rates”.

 

Mario Draghis feeble attempt to save the Eurozone is bound to fail (The Telegraph – reading time 3 minutes, thinking time longer). The Europeon Central Bank whips out the big guns (Marketplace – reading time 3 minutes).

Scotland – tomorrow’s vote

Long-term consequences are far from certain should there be a "yes" vote for Scottish independence tomorrow (September 18). That said the article Scottish independence: Three new polls show narrow lead for No campaign - with an interactive infographic of results of over 90 polls taken this year - suggest to me that a "no" referendum vote is highly likely, if not virtually certain.


Scottish independence is a big deal for many Scots - it certainly would have been for my long-deceased grandmother who would have been "front of the line" to vote "yes". That said, it strikes me as wrong-headed to adopt a simple majority vote in such a matter. Far better, or so I think, to require a"yes" vote of at least two-thirds and even better three-quarters of voters.

 

A second article - Ten Things to Know About Scotland’s Independence Referendum - details one man's view of the pros and cons for Scotland and its 5.3 million people of a "yes" vote tomorrow, and I think it is worth reading and thinking about.


Scottish independence: Three new polls show narrow lead for No campaign (CityAM –reading time 2 minutes). Ten Things to Know About Scotland’s Independence Referendum (NBC News – reading time 5 minutes).

Swiss Referendum – coming your way on November 30

If you don’t know of the upcoming Swiss Referendum said to be intended to bring more oversight and accountability to the Swiss National Bank (SNB) you might want to. While the fact of Referendum itself is interesting, it apparently will include a vote on repatriation of Swiss gold and a mandate that gold will comprise 20% of SNB's assets.

 

The accompanying article is written by Dr. Ron Paul, former Republican member of the U.S. Congress (Texas). Different commentators have different views of Dr.Paul. If pushed, I suspect most would say he is thoughtful, articulate, and well-intentioned - but like all of us, not always right. That said, I suggest in our "new economic normal" Dr. Paul's article is one worth reading –particularly if you are interested in gold as an asset class.

 

Will The Swiss Vote to Get Their Gold Back? (The Daily Reckoning – reading time 3 minutes).

Articles Posted Today to Stock Research Portal

Today, supplementary to the articles discussed in this newsletter, filtered articles were posted to the Home Page of Stock Research Portal in the following categories.

News Category No. of Articles
Posted Today
Economic News 131
Financial Market News 8
Precious Metals News 10
Base Metals News 0
Other Minerals News 7
Oil & Gas News 12


For a quick review of filtered world news by category visit www.stockresearchportal.com

Newsletter Methodology and Objective

Each morning we personally filter (on average) over 750 economic and resource articles published in the previous 24 hours. We select those we think to be particularly important, comment on their subject matter, and give you balanced views that save you time.

Our objective is to help you keep up to date, gain new ideas, better trade and invest, better communicate with your investment advisor if you have one, and importantly make your own ‘penny drop’.

About the Author

Ian R. Campbell

Through the Economic Straight Talk Newsletter Ian R. Campbell shares his perspective on the world economy, the financial markets, and natural resources. A recognized business valuation authority, he founded Toronto based Campbell Valuation Partners (1976), Stock Research Portal (2007) a source of resource companies market data and analytic tools, and Economic Straight Talk (2012). The CICBV* annually funds business valuation research in his name**. Contact him at icampbell@srddi.com.
* Canadian Institute of Chartered Business Valuators
** through The Ian R. Campbell Research Initiative

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